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An Affair to Recall

Charles C. Turner, Political Science

One of the most unusual elections in California history is finally over. While the results may not be certified for weeks, the early returns indicate that Governor Davis will be recalled and that Arnold Schwarzenegger will soon take office as our new governor.

But the outcome alone should not be the only memory we take with us of this historic political event. As the years pass, I will have, I hope, many opportunities to reflect on the "recall of '03" with younger generations -- much as my grandparents shared their memories about the Depression and World War II with me. While the prominence of this recall in the pantheon of California politics is yet to be determined, now is the time for us to preserve our memories of this, again, I hope, once-in-a-lifetime event.

So, what about this chaotic campaign is worthy of preserving in our memory banks? I think there are a few candidates. First, we should remember the events that set the stage for this election. The combination of a poor national economy, an enormous state budget deficit, and a patchwork resolution to an energy crisis combined to create what some commentators have called a political Perfect Storm. Irrespective of the money and political maneuverings that were a part of the equation, this recall would never have made the ballot had there not been a large number of Californians who were upset about the condition of their state.

We also learned how much decades of sexual harassment mean to California voters. Apparently, and unfortunately, they do not mean much. With a reported double-digit lead on both parts of the ballot just two weeks before the election, Schwarzenegger saw his numbers slip in the closing days of the campaign amid numerous allegations from former coworkers that the bodybuilder/actor had a problem keeping his hands to himself. His public statements on this issue -- that he had "behaved badly" and that he would be "extra careful" with women in the future -- were seemingly good enough for many voters. With any luck, the folks who are young when I am old will have a hard time comprehending how someone who allegedly harassed and demeaned so many could brush aside the accusations so lightly, and be accepted by the public so willingly.

The recall was also memorable for epitomizing the bastardization of progressive reform. The initiative, referendum, and recall were introduced into the state constitution to check the interests of the wealthy and powerful. But recent decades have seen the rise of a petition industry that capitalizes on its ability to put these progressive tools back into the hands of oligarchs and plutocrats. One such figure, Darrell Issa, spent $2 million of his own money on these signature-gathering firms to ensure that the recall would reach the ballot.

With advances in communications technology making it easier and easier for political mercenaries to deliver petitions to your e-mail inbox, the success of the recall drive may be an ominous sign of things to come.

Finally, this political affair can be remembered for the anxiety and ambiguity it seemed to produce among political pollsters. From week to week, and poll to poll, the numbers changed dramatically. A Gallup poll showed 63 percent of Californians supporting the recall on Sept. 27, a number that appeared 10 points lower in other polls conducted around the same time. At issue was determining what constituted a "probable voter" in a unique election. Polling firms disagreed over what issues would ultimately determine voter turnout, and the public learned an important lesson about the imprecision of social science -- public opinion is often fickle, and there is not much even the best constructed poll can do about that.

Though other possibilities abound, the issues touched on above are the ones that affected me the most and will be what I recall about this uncommon political season. How about you?

Charles C. Turner is an assistant professor of political science. His teaching and research focus on state government and American political institutions.